March revenue forecast released

The March revenue forecast for Oregon was released on February 10. The state’s mix of industries and net migration flows helped Oregon outpace the nation on wage and job growth. However, declines in equity markets and corporate profits have led to a reduction in future revenue expectations.

State economists say expectations for growth in Oregon’s General Fund revenues are basically the same as they were when the 2015-17 budget was drafted. Though the outlook is stable for the short term, the outlook beyond this biennium is uncertain. In their report to the Legislature, the Office of Economic Analysis said “much of the pain [from current market fluctuations] will be felt during the 2017-19 biennium and beyond.”

A flat revenue forecast indicates the Legislature will not add to the General Fund during the 2016 session. Currently, legislators are budgeting for approximately $26 million in expenditures.

2015-17 biennium:

  • Net available resources: $18.3 billion—a $36 million positive change from the December forecast, plus $24.8 million in Lottery Funds.
  • Corporate tax revenues are expected to exceed the 2% kicker threshold by $12.5 million, generating a kicker amount of $34.3 million.

2017-19 biennium:

  • General Fund revenues are expected to total $19.5 billion, $191 million below the December forecast.
  • The full impact of stock price declines on personal income tax collections will take time to be realized. At the level of price declines seen thus far (around 10%), much of the pain will be felt during the 2017-19 biennium and beyond.